← Primera Division 2017-18 · Fri, Feb 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: David Fernandez Borbalan, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Deportivo La Coruña win | 38% | 32% | 2.57 | fair |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 32% | 39% | 3.02 | value: +18% |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.27 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Deportivo La Coruña | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | Estadio de Riazor |
| 3.60 |
| coach days | 22.00 | 632.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 2.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1422.95 | 1538.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.53 | -14.31 |
| eye test v1 | -1.41 | -1.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.20 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.54 | 0.69 |
| league points | 17.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 70.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.47 |
| season ppg | 0.71 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.80 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.80 | -1.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| state index | -1.49 | -0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.23 | -0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |