← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ignacio Iglesias Villanueva, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 47% | 47% | 2.09 | fair |
| Las Palmas win | 27% | 27% | 3.60 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.72 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Gabriel Peñalba · Las Palmas |
| 29' | 🟨 | Guido Pizarro · Sevilla FC |
| 35' | ⚽ | Wissam Ben Yedder · Sevilla FC |
| 50' | ⚽ | Pablo Sarabia · Sevilla FC |
| 72' | 🟨 | Clément Lenglet · Sevilla FC |
| 82' | ⚽ (pen) | Jonathan Calleri · Las Palmas |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jonathan Viera · Las Palmas |
| 90' | 🟨 | Roque Mesa · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Las Palmas | Sevilla FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Gran Canaria |
| coach days | 78.00 | 78.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1508.28 | 1708.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.28 | -10.27 |
| eye test v1 | -0.70 | -0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.60 | 61.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.50 |
| league points | 18.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.80 | 56.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.64 | 0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.31 | 27.39 |
| state index | -0.19 | 0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.92 | 0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |