← Primera Division 2017-18 · Fri, Feb 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Mateu, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Girona win | 55% | 54% | 1.77 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.49 | fair |
| Leganes win | 17% | 19% | 5.73 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Martín Mantovani · Leganes |
| 23' | ⚽ (pen) | Christian Stuani · Girona |
| 31' | 🟨 | Alex Granell · Girona |
| 36' | ⚽ | Portu · Girona |
| 49' | 🟨 | Aleix García · Girona |
| 67' | 🟨 | Gerard Gumbau · Leganes |
| 71' | 🟨 | Borja García · Girona |
| 77' | 🟨 | Nordin Amrabat · Leganes |
| 84' | 🟨 | Rubén Pérez · Leganes |
| 84' | 🟨 | Joseba Zaldúa · Leganes |
| 85' | ⚽ | Juanpe · Girona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Girona | Leganes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.55 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.80 |
| venue | Estadi Montilivi |
| coach days | 1521.00 | 1721.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 2.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.30 |
| elo | 1558.69 | 1518.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.09 | -5.51 |
| eye test v1 | -0.04 | -0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 50.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.72 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.77 |
| league points | 31.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 66.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.32 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -7.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 6.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.40 | -1.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.66 | -0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.23 | -0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.11 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |