← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sun, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Santiago Jaime Latre, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 61% | 64% | 1.61 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 22% | 4.13 | fair |
| Girona win | 16% | 14% | 6.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 40' | 🟨 | Luis Muriel · Sevilla FC |
| 43' | 🟨 | Guido Pizarro · Sevilla FC |
| 43' | 🟨 | Borja García · Girona |
| 45' | 🟨 | Aday Benítez · Girona |
| 46' | ⚽ | Pablo Sarabia · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sevilla FC | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán |
| coach days | 72.00 | 1516.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.01 | 2.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1701.80 | 1633.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -40.24 | 32.10 |
| eye test v1 | -0.49 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.90 | 60.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.64 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.43 | 0.63 |
| league points | 33.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.60 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.41 | -0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.08 | 25.70 |
| state index | 0.05 | 0.82 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.33 | -0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |