← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Hernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 76% | 84% | 1.28 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 14% | 10% | 6.96 | fair |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 10% | 6% | 10.01 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 8 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Madrid CF | Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Santiago Bernabéu |
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 771.00 | 832.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 3.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1950.03 | 1663.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.19 | -24.42 |
| eye test v1 | 2.30 | 0.79 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.40 | 61.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.63 |
| league points | 39.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.60 | 85.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.00 | 59.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.86 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 7.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 21.40 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.94 | 1.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 10.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 28.15 | 26.21 |
| state index | 1.42 | 0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.21 | 0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |