← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 59% | 63% | 1.65 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 25% | 22% | 3.88 | fair |
| Málaga CF win | 16% | 15% | 6.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 5 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 22 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Málaga CF | Club Atlético de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | La Rosaleda |
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 346.00 | 2263.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.35 | 2.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1456.86 | 1816.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.82 | 8.40 |
| eye test v1 | -1.04 | 0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.20 | 55.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.88 |
| league points | 13.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.00 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.59 | 2.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.21 | -0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | — | 23.32 |
| state index | -0.67 | 1.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.64 | -0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |