← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Pablo Gonzales Fuertes, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eibar win | 35% | 30% | 2.82 | fair |
| Leganes win | 34% | 20% | 2.87 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 50% | 3.11 | value: +54% ⚠ |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 69' | 🟨 | Gabriel Pires · Leganes |
| 74' | 🟨 | Dimitrios Siovas · Leganes |
| 77' | 🟨 | Ezequiel Muñoz · Leganes |
| 80' | 🟨 | Charles Días · Eibar |
| 84' | 🟨 | Dimitrios Siovas · Leganes |
| 84' | 🟥 | Dimitrios Siovas · Leganes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Iván Ramis · Eibar |
| 90' | ⚽ | Iván Ramis · Eibar |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 2 | Shots | 19 |
| 0 | On target | 6 |
| 1 | Corners | 10 |
| 14 | Fouls | 6 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leganes | Eibar |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | — | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | — | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | — | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | — | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Municipal de Butarque |
| coach days | 1715.00 | 955.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1528.19 | 1585.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.53 | 19.81 |
| eye test v1 | -0.65 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.39 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.30 | 63.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.67 |
| league points | 29.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.00 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.80 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.51 | 0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| state index | 0.12 | 0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.72 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |