← Primera Division 2017-18 · Fri, Feb 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Estrada Fernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 68% | 69% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 21% | 4.91 | fair |
| Las Palmas win | 13% | 10% | 7.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Aritz Aduriz · Athletic Club |
| 12' | 🟨 | Ximo Navarro · Las Palmas |
| 41' | 🟨 | Jonathan Calleri · Las Palmas |
| 51' | 🟨 | Enric Saborit · Athletic Club |
| 52' | 🟨 | Kepa Arrizabalaga · Athletic Club |
| 59' | 🟨 | Michel Macedo · Las Palmas |
| 77' | 🟨 | Raúl García · Athletic Club |
| 79' | 🟨 | Leandro Chichizola · Las Palmas |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 20 | Fouls | 29 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Athletic Club | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.43 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | San Mamés |
| coach days | 284.00 | 70.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1624.06 | 1406.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.98 | 6.13 |
| eye test v1 | -0.56 | -0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.48 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.30 | 55.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.67 |
| league points | 27.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.00 | 58.20 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 0.77 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.13 | 0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| state index | 0.03 | -0.83 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.74 | 1.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |