← Primera Division 2017-18 · Mon, Feb 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas win | 44% | 38% | 2.22 | fair |
| Málaga CF win | 30% | 31% | 3.27 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 31% | 3.71 | value: +14% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | 🟨 | Gabriel Peñalba · Las Palmas |
| 35' | 🟨 | Ignasi Miquel · Málaga CF |
| 40' | 🟨 | Recio · Málaga CF |
| 76' | 🟨 | Keko · Málaga CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tana · Las Palmas |
| 90' | ⚽ | Alen Halilović · Las Palmas |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Las Palmas | Málaga CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | Gran Canaria |
| coach days | 66.00 | 341.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1396.24 | 1467.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.86 | -18.38 |
| eye test v1 | -0.47 | -0.96 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.34 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 54.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.72 |
| league points | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 71.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.80 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 0.62 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.82 | -0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| state index | -0.91 | -0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.08 | -0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |