← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Jesus Trujillo Suarez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 37% | 40% | 2.65 | value: +5% |
| Eibar win | 34% | 34% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Kike García · Eibar |
| 17' | ⚽ | Fabián Orellana · Eibar |
| 21' | ⚽ (pen) | Pablo Sarabia · Sevilla FC |
| 32' | ⚽ | Iván Ramis · Eibar |
| 40' | 🟨 | Nicolás Pareja · Sevilla FC |
| 47' | 🟨 | Roque Mesa · Sevilla FC |
| 61' | ⚽ | Fabián Orellana · Eibar |
| 67' | 🟨 | Éver Banega · Sevilla FC |
| 83' | ⚽ | Anaitz Arbilla · Eibar |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 20 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eibar | Sevilla FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.00 |
| venue | Ipurua Municipal Stadium |
| coach days | 948.00 | 64.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 3.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1566.50 | 1622.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.90 | -36.07 |
| eye test v1 | -0.23 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.50 | 63.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.63 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.46 |
| league points | 29.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.80 | 54.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.29 | 0.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | — | 26.75 |
| state index | 0.44 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.34 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |