← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sun, Jan 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Alberola Rojas, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 63% | 63% | 1.54 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.08 | fair |
| Getafe CF win | 13% | 14% | 7.60 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 64' | 🟨 | Juan Cala · Getafe CF |
| 69' | 🟨 | Bruno González · Getafe CF |
| 72' | ⚽ | Luis Muriel · Sevilla FC |
| 74' | 🟨 | Sergio Mora · Getafe CF |
| 76' | 🟨 | Gabriel Mercado · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nolito · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sergio Rico · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ángel Rodríguez · Getafe CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 7 |
| 1 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sevilla FC | Getafe CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| venue | Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán |
| coach days | 58.00 | 514.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.23 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1625.72 | 1572.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -38.15 | -0.96 |
| eye test v1 | 0.04 | -0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.70 | 63.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.46 | 0.65 |
| league points | 32.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 70.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.56 | -1.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.99 | — |
| state index | 0.10 | -0.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.33 | -0.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |