← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sun, Jan 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Martinez Munuera, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leganes win | 34% | 37% | 2.91 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 33% | 31% | 2.93 | fair |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 33% | 32% | 2.94 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ (og) | Mario Hermoso · Leganes |
| 40' | 🟨 | Esteban Granero · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 49' | ⚽ | Marc Navarro · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 62' | 🟨 | Miguel Ángel Guerrero · Leganes |
| 69' | ⚽ | Miguel Ángel Guerrero · Leganes |
| 74' | 🟨 | Óscar Duarte · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 82' | ⚽ (og) | Mario Hermoso · Leganes |
| 86' | 🟨 | Sergi Darder · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 88' | ⚽ | Mario Hermoso · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Unai Bustinza · Leganes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Léo Baptistão · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 7 |
| 20 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leganes | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.53 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 |
| venue | Municipal de Butarque |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 1702.00 | 606.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 2.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1516.30 | 1534.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.28 | 7.30 |
| eye test v1 | -0.78 | -0.94 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.40 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.30 | 46.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.73 |
| league points | 25.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.40 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.00 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.54 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.50 | -0.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| state index | -0.16 | -0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.77 | -0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |