← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, Jan 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Alberto Undiano, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Málaga CF win | 35% | 46% | 2.78 | value: +28% |
| Girona win | 33% | 26% | 2.95 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 28% | 3.07 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | 🟨 | Jonas Ramalho · Girona |
| 67' | 🟨 | Chori Castro · Málaga CF |
| 78' | 🟨 | Chori Castro · Málaga CF |
| 78' | 🟥 | Chori Castro · Málaga CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 11 |
| 1 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 18 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Málaga CF | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | La Rosaleda |
| coach days | 332.00 | 1501.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 2.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1466.49 | 1550.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -38.10 | 6.46 |
| eye test v1 | -0.69 | -0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.80 | 58.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.55 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.65 |
| league points | 12.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 71.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.60 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.45 | -0.84 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.65 | 0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.39 | -0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |