← Primera Division 2017-18 · Mon, Jan 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: David Medie Jimenez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eibar win | 53% | 59% | 1.85 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 28% | 23% | 3.48 | fair |
| Málaga CF win | 19% | 18% | 5.07 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Youssef En-Nesyri · Málaga CF |
| 44' | 🟨 | Federico Ricca · Málaga CF |
| 76' | ⚽ | Kike García · Eibar |
| 89' | 🟨 | Fabián Orellana · Eibar |
| 90' | 🟨 | Zdravko Kuzmanović · Málaga CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Zdravko Kuzmanović · Málaga CF |
| 90' | 🟥 | Zdravko Kuzmanović · Málaga CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eibar | Málaga CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Ipurua Municipal Stadium |
| coach days | 936.00 | 327.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.93 | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1567.06 | 1462.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.00 | -20.12 |
| eye test v1 | -0.59 | -0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.90 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.66 |
| league points | 27.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.20 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 0.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.55 | -0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| state index | 0.75 | -0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.09 | -0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |