← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sun, Jan 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Mateu, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 53% | 54% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.86 | fair |
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 22% | 20% | 4.44 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Sociedad de Fútbol | RC Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.53 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.43 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | Anoeta |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 812.00 | 204.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.43 | 0.82 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1672.87 | 1674.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.68 | 13.93 |
| eye test v1 | 0.13 | -0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.35 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.90 | 64.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.75 |
| league points | 23.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.40 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.32 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.44 | 1.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.57 | 26.79 |
| state index | 0.13 | 0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.96 | 1.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |