← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, Jan 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Luis Gonzalez Gonzalez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 59% | 67% | 1.66 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 25% | 20% | 3.93 | fair |
| Levante UD win | 17% | 13% | 5.90 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ (pen) | Manu Trigueros · Villarreal CF |
| 31' | 🟨 | Saša Lukić · Levante UD |
| 39' | 🟨 | Jaume Costa · Villarreal CF |
| 50' | ⚽ | Denis Cheryshev · Villarreal CF |
| 64' | 🟨 | Sergio Postigo · Levante UD |
| 87' | 🟨 | Álvaro González · Villarreal CF |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Roger Martí · Levante UD |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 16 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Villarreal CF | Levante UD |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| venue | Estadio de la Cerámica |
| coach days | 141.00 | 568.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.87 | 2.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1661.36 | 1512.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.48 | -18.54 |
| eye test v1 | 0.03 | -0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.70 | 53.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.73 |
| league points | 31.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 0.95 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.40 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.03 | -0.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| state index | 0.43 | -0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.11 | -0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |