← Primera Division 2017-18 · Fri, Jan 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jesus Gil Manzano, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 35% | 38% | 2.81 | value: +6% |
| Getafe CF win | 35% | 31% | 2.82 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.18 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Iñaki Williams · Athletic Club |
| 21' | ⚽ (pen) | Jorge Molina · Getafe CF |
| 29' | 🟨 | Amath Ndiaye · Getafe CF |
| 44' | 🟨 | Unai Núñez · Athletic Club |
| 47' | 🟨 | Francisco Molinero · Getafe CF |
| 48' | ⚽ (pen) | Raúl García · Athletic Club |
| 67' | 🟨 | Jorge Molina · Getafe CF |
| 74' | ⚽ | Ángel Rodríguez · Getafe CF |
| 79' | 🟨 | Djené · Getafe CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mauro Arambarri · Getafe CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 12 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Getafe CF | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.83 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| venue | Coliseum Alfonso Pérez |
| coach days | 505.00 | 263.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.60 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1572.11 | 1644.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.13 | 24.56 |
| eye test v1 | -0.57 | 0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.80 | 63.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.86 |
| league points | 26.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.40 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.37 | 1.32 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.31 | -0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| state index | 0.32 | 0.83 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.56 | -0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |