← Primera Division 2017-18 · Mon, Jan 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ignacio Iglesias Villanueva, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié win | 49% | 40% | 1.99 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.48 | value: +3% |
| Leganes win | 23% | 31% | 4.26 | value: +31% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Cristian Tello · Real Betis Balompié |
| 40' | ⚽ | Joaquín · Real Betis Balompié |
| 44' | ⚽ | Gerard Gumbau · Leganes |
| 54' | 🟨 | Ryad Boudebouz · Real Betis Balompié |
| 71' | ⚽ | Javier Eraso · Leganes |
| 82' | 🟨 | Javier Eraso · Leganes |
| 83' | 🟨 | Iván Cuéllar · Leganes |
| 83' | ⚽ (pen) | Rubén Castro · Real Betis Balompié |
| 89' | 🟨 | Gerard Gumbau · Leganes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Riza Durmisi · Real Betis Balompié |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 9 | On target | 6 |
| 1 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Betis Balompié | Leganes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.40 |
| venue | Benito Villamarín |
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 259.00 | 1689.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 1.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1499.77 | 1523.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.22 | 15.49 |
| eye test v1 | 0.06 | -1.11 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.43 | -0.66 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.00 | 56.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.76 |
| league points | 24.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 69.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 38.80 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.97 | -1.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.60 |
| state index | -0.00 | 0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.91 | -0.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |