← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, Jan 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mario Melero Lopez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Girona win | 60% | 56% | 1.64 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 23% | 4.34 | fair |
| Las Palmas win | 18% | 21% | 5.45 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Javi Castellano · Las Palmas |
| 25' | ⚽ (pen) | Christian Stuani · Girona |
| 52' | 🟨 | Alex Granell · Girona |
| 53' | 🟨 | Gabriel Peñalba · Las Palmas |
| 53' | 🟨 | Jonathan Viera · Las Palmas |
| 54' | 🟨 | Pere Pons · Girona |
| 54' | 🟨 | Jonathan Calleri · Las Palmas |
| 57' | 🟨 | David García · Las Palmas |
| 57' | ⚽ | Michael Olunga · Girona |
| 64' | ⚽ | Borja García · Girona |
| 70' | ⚽ | Michael Olunga · Girona |
| 74' | ⚽ | Portu · Girona |
| 79' | ⚽ | Michael Olunga · Girona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 3 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 25 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Girona | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Estadi Montilivi |
| coach days | 1487.00 | 43.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.33 | 2.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1532.59 | 1393.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.79 | -10.76 |
| eye test v1 | -0.72 | 0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.43 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.00 | 48.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.64 |
| league points | 23.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 61.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.28 | 0.61 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.61 | 1.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.18 | -0.80 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.06 | 1.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |