← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sun, Jan 7, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Estrada Fernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 39% | 41% | 2.50 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 32% | 34% | 3.11 | value: +6% |
| Leganes win | 29% | 24% | 3.36 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | 🟨 | Willian José · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 75' | ⚽ | Gabriel Pires · Leganes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leganes | Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 0.80 |
| coach days | 1681.00 | 798.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| venue | Municipal de Butarque |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.99 | 3.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1512.67 | 1605.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.57 | -25.61 |
| eye test v1 | -0.71 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.55 | -0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 61.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.73 |
| league points | 21.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.20 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.00 | 59.20 |
| rest days | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.42 | 1.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| squad age | — | 25.15 |
| state index | -0.13 | 0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.21 | 0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |