← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, Jan 6, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Luis Gonzalez Gonzalez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eibar win | 37% | 35% | 2.65 | fair |
| Las Palmas win | 36% | 38% | 2.73 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.62 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Sergi Enrich · Eibar |
| 31' | 🟨 | Anaitz Arbilla · Eibar |
| 32' | ⚽ (pen) | Jonathan Viera · Las Palmas |
| 42' | 🟨 | Dani Castellano · Las Palmas |
| 57' | 🟨 | Hernán Toledo · Las Palmas |
| 63' | 🟨 | Mauricio Lemos · Las Palmas |
| 73' | ⚽ | Fabián Orellana · Eibar |
| 77' | ⚽ | Sergi Enrich · Eibar |
| 84' | 🟨 | Takashi Inui · Eibar |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Las Palmas | Eibar |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Gran Canaria |
| coach days | 36.00 | 920.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.98 | 2.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1400.42 | 1565.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.31 | 54.05 |
| eye test v1 | 0.64 | -0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.50 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.20 | 65.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.73 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.63 |
| league points | 11.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.40 | 69.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.00 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.65 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.71 | -0.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.55 | 0.77 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.15 | 0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |