← Primera Division 2017-18 · Wed, Dec 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Hernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 46% | 50% | 2.12 | value: +6% |
| Sevilla FC win | 29% | 26% | 3.42 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 3.90 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Sociedad de Fútbol | Sevilla FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Anoeta |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 780.00 | 19.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.75 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1671.72 | 1758.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -49.82 | 10.27 |
| eye test v1 | -0.26 | 0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.70 | 53.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.58 |
| league points | 20.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.40 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.38 | 0.99 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.85 | 27.00 |
| state index | -0.27 | 0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.68 | 0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |