← Primera Division 2017-18 · Tue, Dec 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Santiago Jaime Latre, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levante UD win | 36% | 37% | 2.76 | fair |
| Leganes win | 33% | 29% | 2.98 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 34% | 3.11 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Mauro Dos Santos · Leganes |
| 35' | 🟨 | Jefferson Lerma · Levante UD |
| 50' | 🟨 | José Campaña · Levante UD |
| 61' | 🟨 | Gerard Gumbau · Leganes |
| 63' | 🟨 | Nordin Amrabat · Leganes |
| 68' | 🟨 | Joseba Zaldúa · Leganes |
| 68' | 🟨 | Nordin Amrabat · Leganes |
| 68' | 🟥 | Nordin Amrabat · Leganes |
| 77' | 🟨 | Enis Bardhi · Levante UD |
| 80' | 🟨 | Claudio Beauvue · Leganes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Erick Cabaco · Levante UD |
| 90' | 🟨 | José Campaña · Levante UD |
| 90' | 🟨 | José Luis Morales · Levante UD |
| 90' | 🟥 | José Campaña · Levante UD |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 21 | Fouls | 17 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Levante UD | Leganes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Ciutat de València |
| coach days | 536.00 | 1662.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 2.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1527.49 | 1510.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.55 | -10.98 |
| eye test v1 | -0.30 | -0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | -0.62 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.70 | 54.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.74 |
| league points | 17.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 38.80 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.49 | -1.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.50 | -0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.37 | -1.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |