← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sun, Dec 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas win | 39% | 36% | 2.51 | fair |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 32% | 39% | 3.07 | value: +19% |
| Draw | 29% | 25% | 3.37 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 6 | Fouls | 25 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Las Palmas | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Gran Canaria |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 16.00 | 564.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.67 | 2.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1503.24 | 1626.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.67 | -43.41 |
| eye test v1 | 0.09 | -0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 46.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.77 |
| league points | 10.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.40 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.24 | -0.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.29 | 25.91 |
| state index | -0.57 | -0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.18 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |