← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sun, Dec 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Estrada Fernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 37% | 44% | 2.66 | value: +18% |
| Villarreal CF win | 35% | 29% | 2.77 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.53 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Pablo Fornals · Villarreal CF |
| 34' | ⚽ | Pablo Fornals · Villarreal CF |
| 64' | 🟨 | Jaume Costa · Villarreal CF |
| 80' | 🟨 | Manu Trigueros · Villarreal CF |
| 81' | 🟨 | Jonny Otto · RC Celta de Vigo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 19 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Celta de Vigo | Villarreal CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 |
| venue | Municipal de Balaídos |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 169.00 | 107.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1561.61 | 1629.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.04 | -45.87 |
| eye test v1 | 0.54 | 0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | -0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.00 | 56.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.68 |
| league points | 18.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 55.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.48 | 0.99 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.05 | — |
| state index | 0.24 | -0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.26 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |