← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: David Fernandez Borbalan, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 42% | 47% | 2.31 | value: +8% |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 29% | 26% | 3.34 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.47 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 56' | 🟨 | Aritz Aduriz · Athletic Club |
| 74' | 🟨 | Íñigo Lekue · Athletic Club |
| 88' | 🟨 | Mikel Rico · Athletic Club |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 10 |
| 1 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Athletic Club | Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | San Mamés |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 229.00 | 776.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 5.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 8.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1713.52 | 1668.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.60 | -46.55 |
| eye test v1 | -0.36 | 0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.60 | 60.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.69 |
| league points | 17.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 85.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 61.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.73 | 1.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.58 | 26.17 |
| state index | 0.80 | -0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.63 | 0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |