← Primera Division 2017-18 · Fri, Dec 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ignacio Iglesias Villanueva, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 76% | 74% | 1.28 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 17% | 6.24 | value: +8% |
| Levante UD win | 8% | 9% | 12.40 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 47' | 🟨 | José Campaña · Levante UD |
| 50' | 🟨 | Saša Lukić · Levante UD |
| 60' | 🟨 | Antonio Luna · Levante UD |
| 72' | 🟨 | Clément Lenglet · Sevilla FC |
| 75' | 🟨 | Franco Vázquez · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 22 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sevilla FC | Levante UD |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.50 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| venue | Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán |
| coach days | 14.00 | 532.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1663.87 | 1522.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.22 | -17.68 |
| eye test v1 | 0.10 | -0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.00 | 45.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.73 |
| league points | 28.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.87 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.87 | -0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.49 | — |
| state index | 0.52 | -0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.55 | -0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |