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Sevilla FC 0–0 Levante UD

← Primera Division 2017-18 · Fri, Dec 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ignacio Iglesias Villanueva, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
Sevilla FC win76%74%1.28fair
Draw16%17%6.24value: +8%
Levante UD win8%9%12.40value: +9%

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

47'🟨José Campaña · Levante UD
50'🟨Saša Lukić · Levante UD
60'🟨Antonio Luna · Levante UD
72'🟨Clément Lenglet · Sevilla FC
75'🟨Franco Vázquez · Sevilla FC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
16Shots10
6On target2
8Corners5
22Fouls14
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSevilla FCLevante UD
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.46
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.50
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.620.60
cards avg (last 5)1.803.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueRamón Sánchez-Pizjuán
coach days14.00532.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.08
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.600.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.404.20
corners for avg (last 5)3.804.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.452.46
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.13
dominance (last 5)0.420.41
elo1663.871522.27
elo momentum (last 5)14.22-17.68
eye test v10.10-0.08
eye trend v10.110.32
first sub minute (last 10)53.0045.40
form points (last 5)9.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.140.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.15
keeper form v10.570.73
league points28.0016.00
league rank5.0016.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win1.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.8077.20
possession avg (last 5)50.2045.80
rest days6.005.00
scorer concentration0.180.36
season ppg1.871.07
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.60-3.60
shots for avg (last 5)11.2010.00
skill v10.87-0.22
sot against avg (last 5)5.205.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.202.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.332.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.203.60
squad age25.49—
state index0.52-0.50
sterile dominance v10.55-0.04
threat rate (last 10)0.220.21
threat rate (last 3)0.230.22
threat rate (last 5)0.220.22
venue ppg (last 5)3.001.20