← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sun, Dec 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Del Cerro Grande, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 65% | 63% | 1.51 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 22% | 4.54 | fair |
| Málaga CF win | 13% | 15% | 7.38 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Chori Castro · Málaga CF |
| 23' | ⚽ (pen) | Borja Bastón · Málaga CF |
| 36' | 🟨 | David Zurutuza · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 58' | ⚽ | Chori Castro · Málaga CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 0 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Sociedad de Fútbol | Málaga CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Anoeta |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 770.00 | 284.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.67 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1690.55 | 1581.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.37 | 9.56 |
| eye test v1 | 0.32 | -0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.46 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.70 | 54.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.63 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.64 |
| league points | 19.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.20 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 0.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.19 | -0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.99 | 27.11 |
| state index | 0.09 | -0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.31 | -0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |