← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mario Melero Lopez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Deportivo La Coruña win | 42% | 45% | 2.36 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.32 | fair |
| Leganes win | 29% | 26% | 3.39 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Adrián López · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 27' | 🟨 | Fabian Schär · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 39' | 🟨 | Rubén Pérez · Leganes |
| 48' | 🟨 | Celso Borges · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 53' | 🟨 | Guilherme · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 61' | 🟨 | Gerard Gumbau · Leganes |
| 89' | 🟨 | Claudio Beauvue · Leganes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fernando Navarro · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gabriel Pires · Leganes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 3 |
| 4 | On target | 0 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 16 | Fouls | 21 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Deportivo La Coruña | Leganes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 |
| venue | Estadio de Riazor |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 69.00 | 1652.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 1.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1555.99 | 1611.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.62 | -5.43 |
| eye test v1 | -0.27 | -0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.90 | 56.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.74 |
| league points | 12.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 69.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 38.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.14 | -1.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.10 | -0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.52 | -1.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |