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Getafe CF 0–0 Eibar

← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Alberola Rojas, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
Getafe CF win46%32%2.11fair
Draw28%33%3.51value: +17%
Eibar win26%35%3.83value: +33%

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

49'🟨Takashi Inui · Eibar
81'🟨Dani García · Eibar
84'🟨Iván Alejo · Eibar
88'🟨Gaku Shibasaki · Getafe CF
90'🟨Sergi Enrich · Eibar

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
6Shots7
3On target2
9Corners7
14Fouls13
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGetafe CFEibar
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.490.47
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.440.47
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.710.61
cards avg (last 5)5.402.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueColiseum Alfonso Pérez
coach days464.00892.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.20
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.402.80
corners against avg (last 5)6.802.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.405.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.952.33
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.26
dominance (last 5)0.440.68
elo1576.241536.06
elo momentum (last 5)23.9433.24
eye test v1-0.160.66
eye trend v10.050.65
first sub minute (last 10)59.5061.90
form points (last 5)10.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.802.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.341.65
h2 goals (last 10)1.300.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.20
keeper form v10.760.51
league points19.0017.00
league rank9.0013.00
matches since blank1.005.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)66.0076.60
possession avg (last 5)38.8055.00
rest days6.006.00
scorer concentration0.330.31
season ppg1.361.21
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.806.80
shots for avg (last 5)10.0012.60
skill v1-1.880.35
sot against avg (last 5)4.802.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.403.80
sot for avg (last 3)5.006.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.405.80
state index0.520.39
sterile dominance v1-1.360.29
threat rate (last 10)0.280.23
threat rate (last 3)0.260.26
threat rate (last 5)0.270.24
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.60