← Primera Division 2017-18 · Fri, Dec 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: David Medie Jimenez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés win | 42% | 35% | 2.36 | fair |
| Las Palmas win | 30% | 30% | 3.26 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 35% | 3.47 | value: +21% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Ibai Gómez · Deportivo Alavés |
| 55' | ⚽ | Munir El Haddadi · Deportivo Alavés |
| 57' | 🟨 | Tomás Pina · Deportivo Alavés |
| 69' | 🟨 | Munir El Haddadi · Deportivo Alavés |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 6 |
| 9 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 23 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Deportivo Alavés | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.57 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 5.00 |
| venue | Estadio de Mendizorroza |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 3.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1493.30 | 1414.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.97 | -12.95 |
| eye test v1 | 0.06 | 0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.58 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 53.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.56 |
| league points | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.20 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 0.64 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.96 | 1.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| state index | -0.35 | -0.80 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.88 | 0.95 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |