← Primera Division 2017-18 · Fri, Dec 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Málaga CF win | 52% | 54% | 1.88 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.63 | fair |
| Levante UD win | 21% | 22% | 4.69 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Luis Hernández · Málaga CF |
| 36' | 🟨 | Samu García · Levante UD |
| 51' | 🟨 | Enis Bardhi · Levante UD |
| 90' | 🟨 | José Campaña · Levante UD |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 3 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Málaga CF | Levante UD |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | La Rosaleda |
| coach days | 275.00 | 518.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.24 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 2.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1482.52 | 1531.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.04 | -9.58 |
| eye test v1 | -0.20 | -0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | 0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 45.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.74 |
| league points | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.60 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 0.54 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.62 | -0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.16 | -0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.04 | -0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |