← Primera Division 2017-18 · Mon, Nov 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Martinez Munuera, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 45% | 49% | 2.20 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.28 | fair |
| Getafe CF win | 26% | 22% | 3.83 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Djené · Getafe CF |
| 42' | 🟨 | Juan Cala · Getafe CF |
| 45' | 🟨 | Javi Fuego · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 55' | ⚽ | Gerard Moreno · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 56' | 🟨 | — · Getafe CF |
| 59' | 🟨 | Markel Bergara · Getafe CF |
| 65' | 🟨 | Sergio García · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 82' | 🟨 | Damián Suárez · Getafe CF |
| 89' | 🟨 | Vitorino Antunes · Getafe CF |
| 89' | 🟨 | Jorge Molina · Getafe CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sergi Darder · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona | Getafe CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | RCDE Stadium |
| 3.40 |
| coach days | 544.00 | 452.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.53 | 2.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1544.08 | 1574.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.21 | 19.98 |
| eye test v1 | -0.35 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.60 | 57.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.72 |
| league points | 13.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 68.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 38.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.04 | -1.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.03 | 0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.10 | -1.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |