← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sun, Nov 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Alberola Rojas, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 45% | 41% | 2.16 | fair |
| Sevilla FC win | 28% | 30% | 3.52 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.66 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Cédric Bakambu · Villarreal CF |
| 23' | 🟨 | Víctor Ruiz · Villarreal CF |
| 53' | ⚽ | Carlos Bacca · Villarreal CF |
| 55' | 🟨 | Ramiro Guerra · Villarreal CF |
| 56' | ⚽ | Clément Lenglet · Sevilla FC |
| 57' | ⚽ | Franco Vázquez · Sevilla FC |
| 66' | 🟨 | Guido Pizarro · Sevilla FC |
| 72' | 🟨 | Éver Banega · Sevilla FC |
| 77' | 🟨 | Víctor Ruiz · Villarreal CF |
| 77' | 🟥 | Víctor Ruiz · Villarreal CF |
| 78' | ⚽ (pen) | Éver Banega · Sevilla FC |
| 86' | 🟨 | Joaquín Correa · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jaume Costa · Villarreal CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 17 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Villarreal CF | Sevilla FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estadio de la Cerámica |
| coach days | 86.00 | 148.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.35 | 3.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1682.34 | 1653.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.41 | -19.59 |
| eye test v1 | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.60 | 53.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.74 |
| league points | 21.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.20 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 2.96 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.41 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 1.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.16 | 0.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| squad age | — | 27.28 |
| state index | 0.86 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.77 | 0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |