← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sun, Nov 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Pablo Gonzales Fuertes, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 70% | 72% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 13% | 5.42 | fair |
| Las Palmas win | 12% | 15% | 8.18 | value: +26% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 11 | Corners | 3 |
| 22 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Sociedad de Fútbol | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 |
| venue | Anoeta |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 756.00 | 56.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 4.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1721.54 | 1495.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.50 | -55.18 |
| eye test v1 | 0.73 | 0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.00 | 49.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -2.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.58 |
| league points | 18.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.20 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.36 | 1.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 26.88 | 28.17 |
| state index | 0.87 | -1.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.60 | 0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |