← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, Nov 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Jesus Trujillo Suarez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 62% | 64% | 1.58 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 3.89 | fair |
| Levante UD win | 13% | 13% | 7.59 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 17 | Shots | 16 |
| 2 | On target | 11 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Levante UD | Club Atlético de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.59 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Ciutat de València |
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 512.00 | 2186.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.18 | 3.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1540.54 | 1804.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.16 | 5.44 |
| eye test v1 | -0.64 | -0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.46 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 42.10 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.92 |
| league points | 15.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 38.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.05 | -0.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| squad age | — | 22.38 |
| state index | -0.04 | 0.87 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.26 | -0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |