← Primera Division 2017-18 · Fri, Nov 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Hernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 50% | 49% | 1.94 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.44 | fair |
| Leganes win | 21% | 22% | 4.66 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Erik Morán · Leganes |
| 27' | ⚽ (pen) | Iago Aspas · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 65' | 🟨 | Mauro Dos Santos · Leganes |
| 73' | 🟨 | Gerard Gumbau · Leganes |
| 84' | 🟨 | Andreu Fontàs · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 89' | 🟨 | Jonny Otto · RC Celta de Vigo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Celta de Vigo | Leganes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Municipal de Balaídos |
| coach days | 146.00 | 1637.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.18 | 2.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1552.11 | 1508.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.58 | 9.96 |
| eye test v1 | 0.56 | 0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.70 | 53.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.63 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.68 |
| league points | 14.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 68.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.20 | 39.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.82 | -1.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 26.05 | — |
| state index | 0.21 | -0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.43 | -2.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.39 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |