← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sun, Nov 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mario Melero Lopez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas win | 57% | 54% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 23% | 4.18 | fair |
| Levante UD win | 20% | 23% | 4.97 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | José Campaña · Levante UD |
| 57' | 🟨 | Mauricio Lemos · Las Palmas |
| 71' | ⚽ | Cheick Doukouré · Levante UD |
| 73' | 🟨 | Oier Olazábal · Levante UD |
| 79' | ⚽ | Jason · Levante UD |
| 81' | 🟨 | Toño · Levante UD |
| 89' | 🟨 | José Luis Morales · Levante UD |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 22 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Las Palmas | Levante UD |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Gran Canaria |
| coach days | 49.00 | 506.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.04 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1409.61 | 1528.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -41.88 | -29.91 |
| eye test v1 | 0.22 | -1.12 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.40 | 43.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.54 | 0.71 |
| league points | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 0.55 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.60 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.11 | -0.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.00 |
| state index | -1.53 | -0.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.53 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.11 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |