← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, Nov 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Santiago Jaime Latre, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF win | 56% | 47% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.55 | value: +5% |
| Deportivo Alavés win | 16% | 23% | 5.98 | value: +38% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Markel Bergara · Getafe CF |
| 9' | 🟨 | Adrián Diéguez · Deportivo Alavés |
| 9' | ⚽ (pen) | Jorge Molina · Getafe CF |
| 18' | 🟨 | Djené · Getafe CF |
| 32' | 🟨 | Vitorino Antunes · Getafe CF |
| 41' | 🟨 | Alexis Ruano · Deportivo Alavés |
| 53' | ⚽ | Ángel Rodríguez · Getafe CF |
| 63' | 🟨 | Mubarak Wakaso · Deportivo Alavés |
| 64' | ⚽ | Ángel Rodríguez · Getafe CF |
| 81' | ⚽ | Christian Santos · Deportivo Alavés |
| 90' | 🟨 | Álvaro Jiménez · Getafe CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 18 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Getafe CF | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 |
| venue | Coliseum Alfonso Pérez |
| 3.80 |
| coach days | 443.00 | 61.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.15 | 1.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1562.55 | 1502.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.25 | -6.06 |
| eye test v1 | -0.57 | -0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | 0.55 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 62.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.68 |
| league points | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.40 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.60 | 34.60 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 0.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -2.02 | -1.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.06 | -0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.33 | -1.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |