← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sun, Nov 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 90% | 83% | 1.09 | fair |
| Draw | 7% | 9% | 14.29 | value: +27% |
| Las Palmas win | 3% | 8% | 29.62 | value: +136% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 41' | ⚽ | Casemiro · Real Madrid CF |
| 45' | 🟨 | Isco · Real Madrid CF |
| 56' | ⚽ | Marco Asensio · Real Madrid CF |
| 64' | 🟨 | Toni Kroos · Real Madrid CF |
| 74' | ⚽ | Isco · Real Madrid CF |
| 79' | 🟨 | Ximo Navarro · Las Palmas |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 27 | Shots | 2 |
| 9 | On target | 1 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Madrid CF | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Santiago Bernabéu |
| coach days | 674.00 | 35.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.59 | 4.04 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1879.16 | 1411.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.64 | -57.60 |
| eye test v1 | 1.40 | 0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.44 | 0.58 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | 49.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -2.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.70 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.56 |
| league points | 20.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.80 | 86.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.20 | 58.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.20 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.80 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 2.05 | 1.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 27.05 | — |
| state index | 1.32 | -1.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.99 | 0.84 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |