← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sun, Nov 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Luis Munuera Montero, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levante UD win | 36% | 37% | 2.69 | fair |
| Girona win | 34% | 31% | 2.85 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 32% | 3.37 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Chema · Levante UD |
| 18' | 🟨 | Juanpe · Girona |
| 44' | 🟨 | Marc Muniesa · Girona |
| 58' | ⚽ | Borja García · Girona |
| 61' | 🟨 | Pablo Maffeo · Girona |
| 70' | 🟨 | Sergio Postigo · Levante UD |
| 72' | 🟨 | Pere Pons · Girona |
| 83' | ⚽ | Christian Stuani · Girona |
| 86' | 🟨 | Jefferson Lerma · Levante UD |
| 90' | ⚽ | Enes Ünal · Levante UD |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Levante UD | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.20 |
| venue | Ciutat de València |
| coach days | 492.00 | 1418.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.06 | 2.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1539.95 | 1532.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -38.60 | 18.29 |
| eye test v1 | -1.43 | 0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.80 | 64.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.67 |
| league points | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 41.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.90 | -0.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.71 | 0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.19 | -1.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |