← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, Nov 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Luis Gonzalez Gonzalez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 79% | 83% | 1.24 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 12% | 7.57 | fair |
| Sevilla FC win | 8% | 5% | 12.26 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Paco Alcácer · FC Barcelona |
| 59' | ⚽ | Guido Pizarro · Sevilla FC |
| 65' | ⚽ | Paco Alcácer · FC Barcelona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Barcelona | Sevilla FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.48 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| venue | Camp Nou |
| coach days | 156.00 | 126.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.05 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1926.48 | 1649.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.52 | -24.47 |
| eye test v1 | 1.09 | 0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.58 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.80 | 45.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.89 | — |
| league points | 28.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 17.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.00 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.80 | 58.40 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 7.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.46 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 2.80 | 1.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.84 | 1.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.80 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.60 | 27.28 |
| state index | 1.84 | 0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.96 | 0.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |