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Real Betis Balompié 2–2 Getafe CF

← Primera Division 2017-18 · Fri, Nov 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Mateu, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
Real Betis Balompié win48%48%2.06fair
Draw28%28%3.55fair
Getafe CF win25%24%3.94fair

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'🟨Juan Cala · Getafe CF
18'🟨Javi García · Real Betis Balompié
18'⚽Markel Bergara · Getafe CF
32'🟨Mauro Arambarri · Getafe CF
33'🟨Vitorino Antunes · Getafe CF
34'⚽Francisco Portillo · Getafe CF
43'🟨Djené · Getafe CF
53'🟨Jordi Amat · Real Betis Balompié
68'⚽Antonio Sanabria · Real Betis Balompié
75'🟨Fayçal Fajr · Getafe CF
85'🟨Markel Bergara · Getafe CF
87'⚽Ryad Boudebouz · Real Betis Balompié

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
15Shots9
4On target2
4Corners6
10Fouls14
2Yellow cards6
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricReal Betis BalompiéGetafe CF
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.440.48
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.470.44
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.640.73
cards avg (last 5)2.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBenito Villamarín
2.40
coach days186.00428.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.220.15
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)6.005.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.405.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.112.15
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.10
dominance (last 5)0.520.50
elo1499.221562.65
elo momentum (last 5)15.0418.41
eye test v10.69-0.00
eye trend v10.150.07
first sub minute (last 10)60.6058.20
form points (last 5)7.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.60
goals against avg (last 5)2.201.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.601.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.451.16
h2 goals (last 10)1.301.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.20
keeper form v10.600.74
league points16.0012.00
league rank8.0012.00
matches since blank0.008.00
matches since clean sheet1.004.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)86.6066.60
possession avg (last 5)60.0040.20
rest days4.005.00
scorer concentration0.330.33
season ppg1.601.20
shot diff avg (last 5)0.60-0.60
shots for avg (last 5)11.6010.80
skill v11.74-1.71
sot against avg (last 5)4.604.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.403.80
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.404.80
state index0.190.30
sterile dominance v11.37-1.26
threat rate (last 10)0.200.29
threat rate (last 3)0.180.22
threat rate (last 5)0.200.27
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.20