← Primera Division 2017-18 · Mon, Oct 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Del Cerro Grande, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas win | 48% | 37% | 2.05 | fair |
| RC Deportivo La Coruña win | 26% | 31% | 3.73 | value: +17% |
| Draw | 26% | 31% | 3.78 | value: +19% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Loïc Rémy · Las Palmas |
| 36' | ⚽ | Celso Borges · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 45' | 🟨 | Michel Macedo · Las Palmas |
| 54' | ⚽ | Celso Borges · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 69' | ⚽ (pen) | Lucas Pérez · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 90' | 🟨 | Juanfran · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Las Palmas | RC Deportivo La Coruña |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Gran Canaria |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 29.00 | 29.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.14 | 2.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1427.59 | 1455.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -44.91 | 3.82 |
| eye test v1 | -0.05 | 0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.00 | 60.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.80 |
| league points | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 57.40 |
| rest days | 8.04 | 7.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 0.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.17 | 0.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| state index | -1.31 | -0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.59 | 0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |