← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, Oct 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: David Medie Jimenez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 57% | 61% | 1.71 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.93 | fair |
| Leganes win | 18% | 15% | 5.57 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Wissam Ben Yedder · Sevilla FC |
| 30' | 🟨 | Rubén Pérez · Leganes |
| 48' | ⚽ (pen) | Alexander Szymanowski · Leganes |
| 54' | ⚽ | Pablo Sarabia · Sevilla FC |
| 67' | 🟨 | Gabriel Pires · Leganes |
| 84' | 🟨 | José Naranjo · Leganes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 19 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sevilla FC | Leganes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán |
| coach days | 119.00 | 1610.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.46 | 2.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.00 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1745.34 | 1617.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.32 | 51.54 |
| eye test v1 | 0.41 | -0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.60 | 56.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.87 |
| league points | 16.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 70.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.00 | 42.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.78 | 1.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.08 | -1.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 28.25 | — |
| state index | 0.48 | 1.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.66 | -1.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |