← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sun, Oct 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: David Fernandez Borbalan, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 62% | 66% | 1.58 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 22% | 21% | 4.50 | fair |
| Las Palmas win | 16% | 13% | 5.99 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Mauricio Lemos · Las Palmas |
| 30' | 🟨 | Víctor Ruiz · Villarreal CF |
| 40' | 🟨 | Vicente Gómez · Las Palmas |
| 48' | ⚽ | Cédric Bakambu · Villarreal CF |
| 65' | ⚽ | Mario Gaspar · Villarreal CF |
| 67' | ⚽ (og) | Ximo Navarro · Villarreal CF |
| 73' | 🟨 | Ximo Navarro · Las Palmas |
| 75' | 🟨 | Jonathan Viera · Las Palmas |
| 86' | 🟨 | Michel Macedo · Las Palmas |
| 90' | ⚽ | Nicola Sansone · Villarreal CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 25 | Shots | 16 |
| 9 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Villarreal CF | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Estadio de la Cerámica |
| coach days | 51.00 | 21.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 4.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1647.49 | 1434.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.27 | -24.53 |
| eye test v1 | -0.05 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.70 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.65 |
| league points | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.20 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.60 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.26 | 1.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| state index | 0.33 | -0.93 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.04 | 0.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |