← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, Oct 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levante UD win | 37% | 38% | 2.68 | fair |
| Getafe CF win | 32% | 29% | 3.02 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 33% | 3.17 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Mauro Arambarri · Getafe CF |
| 14' | 🟨 | Juan Cala · Getafe CF |
| 42' | 🟨 | Jefferson Lerma · Levante UD |
| 58' | ⚽ | Fayçal Fajr · Getafe CF |
| 62' | ⚽ | José Luis Morales · Levante UD |
| 90' | 🟨 | Francisco Portillo · Getafe CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 9 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 18 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Levante UD | Getafe CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.12 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Ciutat de València |
| coach days | 477.00 | 415.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 1.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1540.70 | 1550.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.02 | 4.81 |
| eye test v1 | -0.61 | -0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.43 | 0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.50 | 58.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.74 |
| league points | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 65.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 34.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.76 | -2.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.26 | 0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.77 | -2.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |