⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Levante UD 1–1 Getafe CF

← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, Oct 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
Levante UD win37%38%2.68fair
Getafe CF win32%29%3.02fair
Draw31%33%3.17value: +3%

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'🟨Mauro Arambarri · Getafe CF
14'🟨Juan Cala · Getafe CF
42'🟨Jefferson Lerma · Levante UD
58'⚽Fayçal Fajr · Getafe CF
62'⚽José Luis Morales · Levante UD
90'🟨Francisco Portillo · Getafe CF

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
5Shots9
1On target5
3Corners2
18Fouls16
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLevante UDGetafe CF
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.270.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.120.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.250.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.520.67
cards avg (last 5)1.802.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueCiutat de València
coach days477.00415.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.13
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.80-1.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.605.20
corners for avg (last 5)3.804.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.951.65
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.13
dominance (last 5)0.460.54
elo1540.701550.87
elo momentum (last 5)-21.024.81
eye test v1-0.61-0.16
eye trend v1-0.430.39
first sub minute (last 10)46.5058.90
form points (last 5)5.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.991.34
h2 goals (last 10)0.601.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.20
keeper form v10.750.74
league points10.008.00
league rank12.0014.00
matches since blank0.006.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win3.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.8065.60
possession avg (last 5)43.0034.20
rest days8.007.00
scorer concentration0.600.30
season ppg1.251.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.401.20
shots for avg (last 5)11.2011.60
skill v1-0.76-2.22
sot against avg (last 5)4.605.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.203.50
sot for avg (last 3)1.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.004.20
state index-0.260.07
sterile dominance v1-0.77-2.15
threat rate (last 10)0.280.30
threat rate (last 3)0.260.32
threat rate (last 5)0.270.34
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.00