← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, Oct 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Pablo Gonzales Fuertes, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 91% | 86% | 1.07 | fair |
| Draw | 6% | 11% | 17.00 | value: +82% |
| Málaga CF win | 3% | 3% | 35.00 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Gerard Deulofeu · FC Barcelona |
| 21' | 🟨 | Roberto Rosales · Málaga CF |
| 26' | 🟨 | Luis Hernández · Málaga CF |
| 39' | 🟨 | Adrián González · Málaga CF |
| 56' | ⚽ | Andrés Iniesta · FC Barcelona |
| 74' | 🟨 | Samuel Umtiti · FC Barcelona |
| 82' | 🟨 | Emanuel Cecchini · Málaga CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Barcelona | Málaga CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.52 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.40 |
| venue | Camp Nou |
| coach days | 142.00 | 234.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.70 | 2.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1919.13 | 1472.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.29 | -37.40 |
| eye test v1 | 1.68 | -0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 56.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 2.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.64 |
| league points | 22.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 15.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.80 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.80 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | — |
| season ppg | 2.75 | 0.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 2.00 | -0.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.50 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.60 | — |
| state index | 1.76 | -1.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.33 | -0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.20 |