← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sun, Oct 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Luis Gonzalez Gonzalez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Málaga CF win | 39% | 43% | 2.52 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.13 | fair |
| Leganes win | 30% | 27% | 3.29 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Joseba Zaldúa · Leganes |
| 38' | 🟨 | Paul Baysse · Málaga CF |
| 43' | 🟨 | Recio · Málaga CF |
| 47' | 🟨 | Dimitrios Siovas · Leganes |
| 56' | ⚽ | Gabriel Pires · Leganes |
| 78' | ⚽ | Alexander Szymanowski · Leganes |
| 80' | 🟨 | Rubén Pérez · Leganes |
| 81' | 🟨 | Recio · Málaga CF |
| 81' | 🟥 | Recio · Málaga CF |
| 84' | 🟨 | Roberto Rosales · Málaga CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 19 |
| 5 | On target | 9 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 21 | Fouls | 21 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Málaga CF | Leganes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | La Rosaleda |
| coach days | 228.00 | 1597.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 2.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1489.69 | 1498.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -41.43 | 5.64 |
| eye test v1 | 0.04 | -0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 52.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.82 |
| league points | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 68.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.14 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.37 | -1.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| state index | -1.09 | -0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.59 | -0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |