← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sun, Oct 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Del Cerro Grande, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Girona win | 37% | 29% | 2.65 | fair |
| Villarreal CF win | 35% | 45% | 2.82 | value: +26% |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.48 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Cédric Bakambu · Villarreal CF |
| 20' | ⚽ | Cédric Bakambu · Villarreal CF |
| 31' | 🟨 | Portu · Girona |
| 40' | ⚽ | Christian Stuani · Girona |
| 59' | 🟨 | Álvaro González · Villarreal CF |
| 79' | 🟨 | Cédric Bakambu · Villarreal CF |
| 86' | 🟨 | Olarenwaju Kayode · Girona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Douglas Luiz · Girona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Christian Stuani · Girona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Carlos Bacca · Villarreal CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rodri · Villarreal CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 5 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 20 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Girona | Villarreal CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estadi Montilivi |
| coach days | 1397.00 | 44.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | 1.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1512.87 | 1645.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.32 | -1.09 |
| eye test v1 | -0.65 | 0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.50 | 64.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.68 |
| league points | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 57.60 |
| rest days | 16.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.75 | 1.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.50 | 0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.77 | 0.86 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |